Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.180868 2.301222 2.431036 2.582684 2.756624 2.952019 3.191298
2025-06-01 2.034025 2.185399 2.355617 2.564362 2.818215 3.123904 3.532098
2025-06-08 1.929570 2.098704 2.294453 2.543073 2.859150 3.261772 3.841799
2025-06-15 1.870314 2.056070 2.276613 2.565863 2.949543 3.466811 4.276356
2025-06-22 1.774659 1.961826 2.187063 2.487657 2.895973 3.465028 4.402874
2025-06-29 1.724625 1.919292 2.157404 2.482069 2.936534 3.598066 4.769621
2025-07-06 1.661274 1.856391 2.097474 2.430662 2.906184 3.618770 4.946665
2025-07-13 1.640299 1.845022 2.102124 2.465416 3.001083 3.845574 5.576628
2025-07-20 1.633431 1.850611 2.128336 2.530795 3.147421 4.182738 6.603600
2025-07-27 1.604172 1.825577 2.111912 2.533554 3.195997 4.357500 7.362565
2025-08-03 1.577759 1.802933 2.097212 2.537167 3.245385 4.542569 8.299505
2025-08-10 1.530834 1.751503 2.040817 2.475373 3.180233 4.489502 8.432131
2025-08-17 1.501995 1.724311 2.018316 2.465572 3.206423 4.638320 9.495256
2025-08-24 1.473648 1.696679 1.993843 2.450958 3.222427 4.769176 10.704964
2025-08-31 1.446019 1.669029 1.968089 2.432611 3.229699 4.882469 12.091066
2025-09-07 1.432575 1.659943 1.967944 2.453765 3.310049 5.189043 15.824761
2025-09-14 1.392027 1.612759 1.911673 2.382925 3.212801 5.030373 15.216281
2025-09-21 1.373260 1.594909 1.896991 2.377947 3.239867 5.201917 18.966563
2025-09-28 1.343078 1.560628 1.857507 2.331130 3.182978 5.137929 19.623594
2025-10-05 1.337221 1.559656 1.866210 2.362855 3.281532 5.532450 36.340593
2025-10-12 1.339223 1.569516 1.890963 2.422374 3.443442 6.196101 NaN
2025-10-19 1.325667 1.557154 1.882226 2.424888 3.487350 6.500294 NaN
2025-10-26 1.312938 1.545601 1.874255 2.428175 3.533277 6.838427 NaN